Forecasting the future of neonatal jaundice care with predictive analytics

Neonatal jaundice is the most common medical condition in newborns, affecting roughly 60% of full-term infants and 80% of preterm infants within the first week of life.¹ In most cases, it resolves with minimal intervention. Yet jaundice remains the leading cause of hospital readmissions in the first month of life, accounting for an estimated $700 million annually in U.S. healthcare costs.²

For families, an unexpected return to the hospital after discharge can be disruptive and distressing. For health systems already managing staffing and financial pressures, avoidable readmissions can further strain capacity. The challenge lies in identifying infants at risk before bilirubin levels peak—and intervening early enough to keep babies safe at home.

This is where predictive analytics, and technologies such as the Dräger BiliPredics solution, are helping providers transform jaundice management.

Gaps in conventional jaundice management

Bilirubin levels typically peak between the third and seventh day after birth—often after families have already gone home.³ The average postpartum hospital stay in the U.S. is 48 hours for vaginal deliveries, leaving a critical gap in surveillance.⁴

The 2022 American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) Clinical Practice Guideline on hyperbilirubinemia provides a clear framework for assessing jaundice risk, adjusting treatment thresholds and ensuring appropriate follow-up.^5,6 When effectively applied, the guideline can reduce jaundice-related readmissions from 3.9% to 2.1%.⁷

But in practice, guideline adherence has proven difficult. Challenges include:

• Complexity and training requirements: Implementation requires thorough staff training, and recent research shows adherence to the 2022 guideline is “suboptimal.”⁸
• Limited predictive capabilities: Current bilirubin risk assessments are based on a limited number of clinical parameters, such as gestational age, day of life and the presence or absence of risk factors such as blood type, significant bruising during birth, breastfeeding and family history of certain blood disorders.⁹
• Risk zone volatility: As many as 80% of neonates change risk zones after discharge due to bilirubin levels peaking after 72 hours of life, underscoring the limitations of static, retrospective assessments.^9,10

The result: Infants who appear stable at discharge can develop significant hyperbilirubinemia days later, requiring phototherapy or, in rare cases, risking bilirubin-induced neurologic dysfunction.¹¹

Predictive analytics: A new approach

Predictive analytics offers clinicians a forward-looking lens—transforming historical and real-time data into actionable forecasts. Instead of reacting to bilirubin levels after they peak, providers can anticipate the trajectory and intervene proactively.⁹

Powered by a proprietary pharmacometrics algorithm, the Dräger BiliPredics solution can forecast an infant’s risk of jaundice up to 60 hours in advance. The model evaluates a wide range of factors, including key clinical characteristics such as gestational age, birth weight and delivery mode.⁹

The web application aligns with the 2022 AAP guideline, providing:⁹

• Visual graphs of bilirubin progression for intuitive risk tracking
• Forecasts that support proactive discharge planning
• Reports for families and pediatricians, improving care continuity
• Electronic health record system integration that supports clinician workflow

Real-world benefits across stakeholders

By translating predictive insight into practical action, the Dräger BiliPredics solution delivers measurable advantages for everyone involved in newborn care. From clinical decision making to family experience, its impact extends well beyond early bilirubin detection.

• For clinicians: Identify at-risk infants before discharge for timely intervention and replace unplanned readmissions with scheduled follow-ups. These efforts help support evidence-based decisions aligned with the AAP guideline while improving communication with families and primary care providers.
• For hospitals and health systems: Help improve discharge planning with predictive insights to avoid unnecessary phototherapy, extended stays and readmissions. This approach supports safer home transitions while optimizing staff time.
• For parents and families: Provide clear communication about jaundice risk and help reduce disruptive readmissions through proactive management, supporting family bonding and peace of mind. Report sharing with pediatricians helps ensure continuity of care after discharge.
• For babies: Facilitate timely, family-centered interventions, as indicated in the proposed NICU Baby’s Bill of Rights, and minimize preventable complications and hospital stressors.¹²

Looking ahead

Despite decades of progress, neonatal jaundice continues to cause preventable complications and unnecessary readmissions. Traditional guidelines and risk assessments remain valuable, but they fall short without predictive insight.

Solutions like Dräger BiliPredics are demonstrating that the future of neonatal jaundice management isn’t just about treating high bilirubin levels—it’s about predicting them. By embracing predictive analytics, hospitals can help ease burdens on staff, reduce healthcare costs and most importantly, give newborns and their families a healthier, more confident start.