Cancer care is entering a decisive decade. Are you ready?
Article | February 26, 2026
Reading time: 5 mins
Cancer prevention and treatment are often framed around screenings, lifestyle changes, early detection and appropriate treatment. But for health systems, the challenge is far broader and centers on designing and sustaining a cancer service line capable of delivering the full range of services patients need across an increasingly complex continuum of care.
Over the next five to 10 years, oncology leaders will face a convergence of forces—rising incidence, growing patient complexity and accelerating high-cost innovation that will significantly influence how cancer care is organized and delivered in the U.S.
To meet this moment, providers must move beyond reactive planning. Forecasting demand, coverage shifts and care delivery needs is no longer optional.
It is foundational to sustaining access, quality and financial viability.
Key challenges shaping the cancer service line
Demand is rising and access across the continuum is needed.
While inpatient cancer volumes are projected to remain essentially flat over the next decade (0% growth), outpatient cancer volumes are expected to grow nearly 18%, driven by earlier diagnoses, evolving screening guidelines and continued site-of-care shifts. At the same time, inpatient cancer care is becoming more complex, with rising case mix and bed days despite flat discharge growth.
As cancer care scales across systems and more complex therapies move into outpatient settings, connectivity between the inpatient and outpatient care settings (including HOPD and ambulatory) becomes essential to meeting demand and sustaining access across the care continuum.
Patients are younger, sicker and expect more.
Cancer is no longer a disease primarily affecting older adults. Health systems are seeing more early-onset diagnoses, often in patients who fall outside traditional screening guidelines and present later and sicker as a result. These patients expect rapid access, subspecialized expertise and care closer to home—expectations that are difficult to meet in workforce-constrained environments.
Innovation is accelerating faster than infrastructure.
From cellular therapies and antibody-drug conjugates to radiopharmaceuticals and theranostics, oncology innovation is expanding at a pace that challenges traditional program models. Many of these therapies require new staffing models, tighter inpatient–outpatient coordination and complex partnerships, particularly as non-academic systems enter historically specialized domains.
Why forecasting is essential as pressures continue
Traditional planning models rely heavily on historical utilization. But history is a poor predictor of what cancer care will look like in 2030.
Leaders must understand not just how much demand will grow, but where, how and under what conditions that demand will materialize. This matters profoundly for cancer care since:
- Delayed prevention and screening among uninsured and underinsured populations increase downstream acuity and cost.
- Shifts in payer mix compress margins as lower-reimbursed medical oncology displaces higher-margin procedural care.
- Uneven state-level impacts mean that two cancer centers with similar capabilities and volumes today may face vastly different futures depending on local payer and coverage dynamics.
Strategic planning will require leaders to anticipate inflection points early and align care models and partnerships proactively rather than responding once higher acuity demand, capacity constraints, and care fragmentation are exacerbated.
What providers must do now: Action items for the next decade
Near-term actions (next 12–24 months)
- Redesign access with speed as a clinical imperative. Fast-track intake models, APP-led visits and simplified pre-visit workflows are no longer “nice to have.” Timeliness directly affects outcomes and patient loyalty, particularly for younger and working-age patients.
- Strengthen care coordination and coverage support. As care pathways span more settings and become increasingly fragmented by coverage sits, care coordination, navigation, and financial counseling become essential to maintain continuity and support timely access to care.
- Use forecasting to identify blind spots. Leaders should use demand and coverage forecasts to stress-test assumptions about staffing, infusion capacity, radiation access and inpatient backup needs before bottlenecks appear.
Long-term actions (3–10 years)
- Rethink the System of CARE for oncology. The future of cancer care is not confined to a single site. Successful systems will intentionally distribute subspecialized expertise across the care continuum, supported by standardized pathways and strong referral alignment.
- Plan innovation strategically, not reactively. Not every organization can (or should) offer every emerging therapy. Data-driven decisions about where to invest, where to partner and where to refer will separate sustainable cancer programs from those stretched too thin.
- Prepare for value-based cancer care. As drug costs rise and scrutiny intensifies, systems that improve pathway adherence, reduce avoidable ED use and integrate survivorship and social support will be better positioned for future reimbursement models.
While screening and prevention is a core component of any cancer program, success must be viewed through a broader lens. Preventing late-stage diagnoses, adopting new innovations, and coordinating care across the continuum, requires anticipating what’s next—not just reacting to what’s here. Forecast-driven strategy gives cancer leaders the clarity they need to protect access, sustain innovation and deliver better outcomes, especially for the patients most at risk of being left behind.