Data-driven scenario planning

Sg2 – a Vizient company – has released a COVID-19 Surge Demand Calculator, a scenario planning tool that calculates market-specific, age-adjusted projections of non-ICU bed, ICU and ventilator demand.

Calculations are based on varying transmission rates observed internationally as initial disease spread, mitigation and containment strategies play out.

Updated April 24:
New features allow you to model subsequent COVID-19 surges after relaxation of social distancing rules and more granularly adjust impacts of social distancing within your market.

Download the calculator

Flexible, localized inputs for regional, market or hospital planning

As cities coast to coast lock down to combat COVID-19, hospital leaders are locked in on capacity implications. The impact of COVID-19 varies widely across the country. Health care infrastructure in some cities is already under tremendous pressure; in others, a tipping point is still weeks away.

Time is of the essence, and experts from Sg2, a Vizient® company, have developed the insights and resources you need to inject data-driven planning for inpatient bed and ICU capacity to inform your surge response.

The COVID-19 Surge Demand Calculator is a scenario planning tool that calculates market-specific, age-adjusted projections of non-ICU bed, ICU and ventilator demand, based on varying transmission rates observed internationally as initial disease spread, mitigation and containment strategies play out. The calculator incorporates infectious disease modeling specific to COVID-19 and has been vetted by hospital systems, Vizient biostatisticians, and epidemiologic and pandemic experts.

This tool's unique in its approach to modeling market-level ICU, non-ICU and ventilator demand due to COVID-19

  • It utilizes a customizable hospitalization rate (default of 1.2% based on best epidemiological methodologies and data from China and Italy)
  • The data is market-specific to support preparedness efforts
  • It models different infection rates and the impact of social distancing
  • The outputs are focused on actionable bed planning (e.g. Average Daily Census, shortage/surplus change, time to peak surge, occupancy rate, ALOS)
Sg2’s model enables users to:
  • Apply extreme, aggressive, moderate and mild scenarios of disease spread, adjusting infection rates to simulate the impact of COVID-19 transmission as well as this transmission when impacted by social distancing measures, testing and contact tracing, and other public health and policy initiatives
  • Localize inputs to reflect service area demographics, applying age-adjusted admission rates
  • Input bed, ICU and ventilator supply at the regional, market and organizational level for localized shortage/surplus evaluation
  • Track capacity impact over time

Webinar: Modeling Surge Demand for COVID-19

Recorded April 6, 2020 

Learn how surge demand can be modeled for your organization for ICU beds, medical/surgery beds and ventilator demand; context relevant in understanding the timing of the demand for COVID-19; and statistical underpinnings of modeling in an epidemic.

About Sg2

Health care is a market in motion that demands bold strategic decisions. Sg2’s cutting-edge expertise and analytics provide health industry leaders tools to confidently formulate strategy needed to succeed today while positioning for tomorrow. Sg2 has a proven history of anticipating health care trends and unique solutions to give you unparalleled insight into local market dynamics.

A partnership with Sg2 offers powerful analytics and a vast library of thought leadership resources that can be easily accessed through our online platform.

Other COVID-19 resources

Clinical COVID-19 resources

Information to increase public health awareness about COVID-19. They provide guidance to assist with effective prevention and further spread of the COVID-19 virus.

Webinars

On-demand media featuring Vizient members sharing their innovations and current practices to approach managing the outbreak in their facilities.

Disaster preparedness

Resources with the most current information from the Vizient Disaster Preparedness team, members, suppliers and other industry experts, including our weekly updated Vizient Update: COVID-19.