COVID-19 Surge Demand Calculator for scenario planning

Flexible, localized inputs for regional, market or hospital planning

As cities coast to coast lock down to combat COVID-19, hospital leaders are locked in on capacity implications. The impact of COVID-19 varies widely across the country. Health care infrastructure in some cities is already under tremendous pressure; in others, a tipping point is still weeks away.

Time is of the essence, and experts from Sg2, a Vizient® company, have developed the insights and resources you need to inject data-driven planning for inpatient bed and ICU capacity to inform your surge response.

The COVID-19 Surge Demand Calculator is a scenario planning tool that calculates market-specific, age-adjusted projections of non-ICU bed, ICU and ventilator demand, based on varying transmission rates observed internationally as initial disease spread, mitigation and containment strategies play out. The calculator incorporates infectious disease modeling specific to COVID-19 and has been vetted by hospital systems, Vizient biostatisticians, and epidemiologic and pandemic experts.

This tool's unique in its approach to modeling market-level ICU, non-ICU and ventilator demand due to COVID-19

• It utilizes a customizable hospitalization rate (default of 1.2% based on best epidemiological methodologies and data from China and Italy)
• The data is market-specific to support preparedness efforts
• It models different infection rates and the impact of social distancing
• The outputs are focused on actionable bed planning (e.g. Average Daily Census, shortage/surplus change, time to peak surge, occupancy rate, ALOS)

Sg2’s model enables users to:

• Apply extreme, aggressive, moderate and mild scenarios of disease spread, adjusting infection rates to simulate the impact of COVID-19 transmission as well as this transmission when impacted by social distancing measures, testing and contact tracing, and other public health and policy initiatives
• Localize inputs to reflect service area demographics, applying age-adjusted admission rates
• Input bed, ICU and ventilator supply at the regional, market and organizational level for localized shortage/surplus evaluation
• Track capacity impact over time