Data-driven scenario planning

Experts from Sg2 – a Vizient company – have created a COVID-19 Surge Demand Calculator – a scenario planning tool that calculates market-specific, age-adjusted projections of non-ICU bed, ICU and ventilator demand. Calculations are based on varying transmission rates observed internationally as initial disease spread, mitigation and containment strategies play out.

The calculator has been enhanced to reflect new intelligence and assumptions about the virus. The new model now takes into consideration reduced ICU and ventilator rates, reduced hospitalization rates, reinfection cases, and shorter length of stay.

Download the calculator

Flexible, localized inputs for regional, market or hospital planning

The U.S. is facing a new surge of COVID-19 cases, with the level of impact varying depending on your health system’s local market. Experts from Sg2, a Vizient company, have developed the insights and resources you need to inject data-driven planning for inpatient bed and ICU capacity to inform your surge response while also modeling subsequent surges and adjusting for impacts of social distancing within your market.

The COVID-19 Surge Demand Calculator is a scenario planning tool that calculates market-specific, age-adjusted projections of non-ICU bed, ICU and ventilator demand, based on varying transmission rates observed internationally as initial disease spread, mitigation and containment strategies play out. The calculator incorporates infectious disease modeling specific to COVID-19 and has been vetted by hospital systems, Vizient biostatisticians, and epidemiologic and pandemic experts.

The tool uses a unique approach to modeling market-level ICU, non-ICU and ventilator demand due to COVID-19.

  • It utilizes a customizable hospitalization rate – default of 1.2% based on best epidemiological methodologies and data from China and Italy
  • The data is market-specific to support preparedness efforts
  • It models different infection rates and the impact of social distancing
  • The outputs are focused on actionable bed planning (e.g. Average Daily Census, shortage/surplus change, time to peak surge, occupancy rate, ALOS)
Sg2’s model enables users to:
  • Apply extreme, aggressive, moderate and mild scenarios of disease spread, adjusting infection rates to simulate the impact of COVID-19 transmission as well as this transmission when impacted by social distancing measures, testing and contact tracing, and other public health and policy initiatives
  • Localize inputs to reflect service area demographics, applying age-adjusted admission rates
  • Input bed, ICU and ventilator supply at the regional, market and organizational level for localized shortage/surplus evaluation
  • Track capacity impact over time

About Sg2

Health care is a market in motion that demands bold strategic decisions. Sg2’s cutting-edge expertise and analytics provide health industry leaders tools to confidently formulate strategy needed to succeed today while positioning for tomorrow. Sg2 has a proven history of anticipating health care trends and unique solutions to give you unparalleled insight into local market dynamics.

A partnership with Sg2 offers powerful analytics and a vast library of thought leadership resources that can be easily accessed through our online platform.

Other COVID-19 resources

Clinical COVID-19 resources

Information to increase public health awareness about COVID-19. They provide guidance to assist with effective prevention and further spread of the COVID-19 virus.

Webinars

On-demand media featuring Vizient members sharing their innovations and current practices to approach managing the outbreak in their facilities.

COVID-19 member resources

Resources with the most current information from the Vizient Disaster Preparedness team, members, suppliers and other industry experts, including our weekly updated Vizient Update: COVID-19.